The latest Economic commentary from the Fraser of Allander Institute points to Scotland's pace of recovery from recession being threatened by the massive fiscal consolidation package introduced in the emergency Budget of June 22. The Commentary, which is sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers, also indicates that a double-dip recession producing negative annual growth should be avoided based on the FAI's central case - the Institute produces a low, central and high growth forecast.
The consequences of the cuts to the Budget of the Scottish Parliament and government of around 14% may result, other things being equal, of job losses somewhere between 64,000 and 126,000.
Professor Brian Ashcroft of the Fraser of Allander Institute within the Department of Economics, said, "The speed of Scotland's slow recovery from recession is threatened by the massive fiscal consolidation package introduced by the new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government in the emergency Budget of June 22. However, a double-dip recession producing negative annual growth should be avoided on our central case but it will be a close call on our low growth case.
"The anticipated cut in the budget of the Scottish Parliament will, if other things remain equal, lead to a significant decline in the provision of public services and a major loss of jobs. We urge the Parliament to consider all possible options embracing cost savings, and revenue raising as well as spending cuts in order to best preserve economic growth and social justice in Scotland."
Watch the podcast to see Professor Ashcroft discuss the Commentary in more depth, and go here to see the full report.