The department of Management Science hosted a workshop on Expert Judgment, chaired by Professor John Quigley, on August 29. The day comprised eight talks with contributions from mathematicians, statisticians, decision analysts, psychologists, engineers, lawyers and geologists.
The talks described the development of new mathematical methods for using expert judgment through Bayesian methods, studies showing the accuracy of expert assessments, the role of quantitative expert assessment in regulation and decision making.
There were 45 attendants at the meeting from 18 different institutions two thirds of which were universities representing four different countries. Discussion was lively with meaningful directions for future research identified.
The meeting was jointly sponsored by the London Mathematical Society and the EU COST project on Structured Expert Judgment, which is a collaborative project comprising 25 EU countries.