Risk analysis methods of deep scientific drilling project

Event Date: 18 March 2020

Speaker: Jialin Liu visiting researcher from Jilin University, China 

Location: Strathclyde Business School, Cathedral Wing, Room CW507b

Time: 12.30pm - 2pm  

Management Science Department Research Seminar

Abstract: Deep scientific drilling projects provide first-hand information directly as the depth of drilling increases and thus serves as a reliable method to test the accuracy of the results of geological research. However, literature is rarely available in respect of analysis methods to predict and prevent risks.

The existing methods for risk analysis couldn’t meet the challenges during the operative process of deep continental scientific drilling as a result of: 1. the information sources of risk analysis are mainly from experts’ experience which represent single-resource data. It works in situations that there are sources to refer to. However it causes errors due to subjective judgments when there is less experience that we can refer to. 2. the general evaluation of risk analysis was just to multiply the risk probability by the risk influence, which was too general to take every single necessary risk into consideration. and 3.the existing risk analysis methods are static in spite of the fact that they have already been applied to some tasks in the management of oil exploration, and most of the methods are focused on budget and time evaluation. Those methods are not competent for our programme. A more dynamic method for risk analysis is required to meet the challenges.

We suggested a solution to the problem. In the study we introduced the dynamic risk assessment method to analyse the real-time risk.  

Published: 27 February 2020