The Benefits of Accounting for Dependency in Empirical Bayes Estimation: Rafael Schwarzenegger, University of Strathclyde

Event Date: 17 September 2021

Speaker: Rafael Schwarzenegger, University of Strathclyde

Time: 3.30-4.30pm 

Venue: Join Zoom Meeting: https://strath.zoom.us/j/92231996953; Password: 256030

Abstract: For engineering problems in reliability management programs, the use of all available information is very tempting. Especially while encountering a lack of data. However, such an approach must be handled with caution, because of encountering and being subject to possible fallacies. A simulation setup for situations, where results cannot be obtained analytically, provides us with a desired framework. The work presents the benefits of using appropriate expert engineering judgement. Our wish is to consider underlying dependency between the data generating processes. By using a modified multivariate Poisson-Gamma model we can apprehend aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. For applications we are dependent on data, while the true underlying parameters of these inputs remain unknown, we need to rely on methods to estimate these parameters. Therefore, awareness of possible anticipated errors plays a central role.

About our speaker: Rafael is a doctoral researcher in Management Science, SBS. He has a Bachelor of Science in Financial and Insurance Mathematics and a master’s degree in Mathematical Engineering. His interests are in the use of mathematical methods in engineering, technology, and innovation with a keen interest in including economical evaluations.

Published: 16 September 2021