Economics Seminar: Alessio Volpicella

Event Date: 23 October 2024

Speaker: Alessio Volpicella, University of Surrey

Title: Estimation and Inference of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Set-Identified SVARs

Abstract: 

We study the Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) that impose internal and external restrictions to set-identify the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). This object measures the importance of shocks for macroeconomic fluctuations and is therefore of first-order interest in business cycle analysis. We make the following contributions. First, we characterize the endpoints of the FEVD as the extreme eigenvalues of a symmetric reduced-form matrix. A consistent plug-in estimator naturally follows. Second, we use the perturbation theory to prove that the endpoints of the FEVD are differentiable. Third, we construct confidence intervals that are uniformly consistent in level and have asymptotic Bayesian interpretation. We also describe the conditions to derive uniformly consistent confidence intervals for impulse responses. A Monte-Carlo exercise demonstrates the approach properties in finite samples. An unconventional monetary policy application illustrates our toolkit.

Published: 7 November 2024