Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gary Koop
Author-Name-First: Gary
Author-Name-Last: Koop
Author-Email: gary.koop@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde 
Author-Name: Luca  Onorante
Author-Name-First: Luca 
Author-Name-Last: Onorante
Author-Email: luca.onorante@ecb.int
Author-Workplace-Name: European Central Bank
Title: Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters*
Abstract: This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables,we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric specification. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2011-03
Revision-Date: 
Publication-Status: 
File-URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/2011/11-09_final.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 1109
Classification-JEL: E31, C53, C11
Keywords: inflation expectations, survey of professional forecasters,Phillips curve, Bayesian
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1109