Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christa Jensen
Author-Name-First: Christa
Author-Name-Last: Jensen
Author-Email: Christa.Jensen@mail.wvu.edu
Author-Workplace-Name: Regional Research Institute, Department of Economics, West Virginia University
Author-Name: Donald Lacombe
Author-Name-First: Donald
Author-Name-Last: Lacombe
Author-Email: donald.lacombe@mail.wvu.edu
Author-Workplace-Name: Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University
Author-Name: Stuart McIntyre
Author-Name-First: Stuart
Author-Name-Last: McIntyre
Author-Email: s.mcintyre@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Title: A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election
Abstract: The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the
mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2012-02
Revision-Date: 
Publication-Status: Published
File-URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/2012/12-01.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 1201
Classification-JEL: C11, C21
Keywords: United Kingdom General Election, Bayesian hierarchical modelling, spatial econometrics
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1201