Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yu Chen
Author-Name-First: Yu
Author-Name-Last: Chen
Author-Email: Yu.Chen@glasgow.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow
Author-Name: Kenneth Gibb
Author-Name-First: Kenneth
Author-Name-Last: Gibb
Author-Email: Ken.Gibb@glasgow.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow
Author-Name: Chris Leishman
Author-Name-First: Chris
Author-Name-Last: Leishman
Author-Workplace-Name: Heriot-Watt University
Author-Name: Robert Wright
Author-Name-First: Robert
Author-Name-Last: Wright
Author-Email: r.e.wright@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Title: The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach
Abstract: This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing-or more generally changes in age structure-is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2012-06
Revision-Date: 
Publication-Status: Published
File-URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/2012/12-07-Final.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 1207
Classification-JEL: C53, J11 and R31
Keywords: Population ageing, house prices, micro-simulation
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1207