Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Grant Allan
Author-Name-First: Grant
Author-Name-Last: Allan
Author-Email: grant.j.allan@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Author-Name: Gary Koop
Author-Name-First: Gary
Author-Name-Last: Koop
Author-Email: gary.koop@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Author-Name: Stuart McIntyre
Author-Name-First: Stuart
Author-Name-Last: McIntyre
Author-Email: s.mcintyre@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Author-Name: Paul Smith
Author-Name-First: Paul
Author-Name-Last: Smith
Author-Email: paul.smith.101@strath.ac.uk
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde
Title: Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth
Abstract: The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as
GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts,
which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are
becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting
Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government
office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations.
For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are
unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and
investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth.
Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we
hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing
nowcasting models.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2014-11
Revision-Date: 
Publication-Status: Published
File-URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/14-11b.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 1411
Classification-JEL: 
Keywords: nowcasting, mixed frequency data, regional macroeconomics
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1411