Applying systems thinking to Net Zero policy making

Dr Akwal Sunner - recently graduated with a PhD from Strathclyde - looks at the issues surrounding Net Zero in today's blog and argues a systems thinking approach would help.

As the UK moves through the next decade, there will need to be structural changes at an unprecedented pace and scale if we are to achieve Net Zero by 2050. That change will affect everyone and everything in some way. It will demand transformations at technological, societal and behavioural levels and these systems are all interconnected. 

As a system-level problem, tackling climate change will require incentives, investment, ingenuity, and unprecedented levels of cooperation. Efforts from all stakeholders—international institutions, governments, businesses, non-governmental organisations, and individuals—will be essential in delivering the aim of national net-zero transformation.  

After all, while many businesses are leading on climate change for reasons of principle, and several will be compelled to change their business model to avoid the risks arising from climate change legislation, many others are likely to respond to market opportunities for more profitable, sales of their goods and services. 

The government is committed to a large public investment programme

Public spending on decarbonisation should be targeted to those goods and services that the market cannot provide efficiently, where there is investor uncertainty and to fund early stages of deployment for new technologies. 

In November 2020, the government set out the Ten Point Plan. This will mobilise £12 billion of government investment to create and support up to 250,000 highly skilled green jobs in the UK and spur over three times as much private sector investment by 2030. 

Private spending on decarbonisation is however inhibited by technology risk, market risk and policy risk. Certain initiatives involving potential network effects and coordination failures mean that, without government intervention, the market may not choose the socially optimal or economically efficient pathway. 

Hence, policy will need to navigate significant levels of uncertainty. 

We must not view them as linear and independent: they are part of highly inter-related complex systems. 

Policy development and deployment already seeks input from a wide range of stakeholders. But with the looming challenge and pace of change in materials development, manufacturing and many other sectors to enable Net Zero there is an imperative to get it right or adapt quickly. 

A systems approach can help policymakers frame a policy question in a different way; it encourages evidence gathering that draws upon the widest, most diverse and critical perspectives leading to a ’bigger picture’ view of the policy problem and how it might be tackled. The approach enables policymakers to think about interactions between different parts of the system, and how these can combine to affect the desired outcome. 

The government will need to balance different objectives in designing policy, and in some areas these objectives may pull them in different directions. To manage this complexity a change towards a systems mindset will be required. To achieve Net Zero, policy areas which were previously approached separately or in isolation will need to be recognised as interconnected systems. 

About Akwal Sunner

Dr Akwal Sunner is a consultant with MH&A and completed three degrees at Strathclyde Business School, including most recently graduating with a PhD in November 2022.