Scotland 'may reach 2016 Euro Finals' according to mathematical model

In an article to be published in the Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary Dr Nicolas Scelles of the University of Stirling and Professor Wladimir Andreff of Université Paris 1 model the possibility that Scotland may be able to reach the 2016 Euro Finals. In the paper they estimate the potential outcomes for Scotland in the 2016 Euro qualifiers, based on a model of the outcomes of previous European men’s football matches. The sampled dataset includes all matches played between European national men’s football teams between August 2012 and December 2013; that is 368 matches in all.

According to their model, Scotland should fail to progress to the UEFA Euro 2016 playoffs by only one goal in Group D. This result is confirmed when they correct their model to take into account the difference between real scores and scores provided by the model for each team in Group D.

Nevertheless, in a third model – which is a better predictor – Scotland should come third in Group D and thus proceed to the playoffs in which it could hope to qualify for the Euro 2016 Finals.

A fourth and final approach predicts that Scotland could even come second in Group D, behind Germany, and thus qualify directly to the UEFA Euro 2016 Finals in France. The full article will appear in the next issue of the Commentary, November 2014.

The article is currently available through Strathprints and the press release can be read here.

As Scotland's leading publication on the Scottish economy, the Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary includes articles of topical interest to the Scottish economy and wider policy issues.The paper by Dr Scelles and Professor Andreff will be included in the next edition of the Commentary to be published in November 2014.